FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

We consider an endorsement to be a public display or pronouncement of support that articulates or strongly implies that a candidate is the endorser’s current No. 1 choice for president. That’s a wordy ...

Live election results and coverage of the race for Chicago mayor and Wisconsin Supreme Court. Earlier, we had the latest news and analysis on Donald Trump’s arraignment in New York, after a Manhattan ...

America’s cities are some of its most solidly Democratic areas — but that doesn’t mean they are solidly liberal. Over the past two years, the mayoral elections in our two biggest cities have boiled ...

Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states’ primary ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and ...

Throughout the midterms, I think we saw issues that hadn’t been on many people’s radar matter when those rights looked to be under threat. The Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade played a major role ...

When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans have ...

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: An NFL head coach decides to go for it on fourth down in a big, closely fought game. The team fails the attempt and goes on to lose the game. Fans are outraged, and ...

Coming soon to a 2024 Republican presidential primary ad near you: Gov. Ron DeSantis stood up to moderate Republicans who wanted to appease liberal Democrats, and he won. On Thursday, the Florida ...